One Year of Ratings


Exactly one year has passed since the first ever publication of a BD Ratings analysis. It was conducted on BridgeCoin, and resulted in a very low rating that turned out to be completely correct.)

All in all, 31 ratings have been completed on actual cryptocurrencies (not to be confused with for example ERC20 or NEP-5 tokens). 21 follow up articles have been written so far. This work has been conducted while separately researching and writing on other, diverse blockchain subjects. It has been an educational period where the initial worry was that market prices were going to head in opposite direction of my very public conclusions, which of course would have been somewhat demoralizing. I therefore count the below statistics as a success: the BD Ratings hitrate is at time of writing just under 70%, which means 7 out every 10 ratings have got the assessment right. Another term for this is beating the market.

Also, on a personal note, this year of fundamental analysis on cryptocurrencies has been a pleasure, and I constantly try to remind myself how grateful I am to be able to work with something I very much enjoy. If this free service additionally makes a difference for some readers out there who take the time to understand the arguments I am making in the articles, it is of course an added bonus no matter whether they agree with the ratings or not.

Now, let's look at the statistics of the ratings.

The BD Ratings current hitrate of 69.23% have fluctuated historically, with a high of 84.21% and a low of 68.97%. This is the service i want to provide; it can be hard to filter out good projects among all bad ones out there, especially with limited time on your hand. The high hitrate concludes that you so far generally can trust BD Ratings on what projects are over- or undervalued, and that the ratings are worth considering when allocating capital to cryptocurrencies.

The Bitcoin Maximalist hitrate is exactly 72%, meaning applying a heuristic that says just buy Bitcoin when choosing between an altcoin and Bitcoin, has been quite successful. In fact, it is still higher than the BD Ratings hitrate due to the 2018 collapse of the altcoin market. 

Lastly, the USD Maximalist hitrate is exactly 65.38%, which makes it the lowest of all three hitrate numbers. The fact that it still is over 50%, however, means that when choosing between a cryptocurrency and USD, picking the dollars would have been a successful heuristic as well. This is also due to the crash of cryptocurrency prices in 2018.

Check out the full ratings as well as rating statistics here.