Preparing for 2019

26.12.2018

2018 was an interesting year to give up on old plans and workplaces just to venture deeper in to the theory and practice behind cryptocurrencies. Almost immediately, the market started reverting and throughout the year it tested lower and lower levels of what many started to perceive as a bottomless pit dug from the crypto-traders' shared delusion. We witnessed how other cryptocurrency rating initiatives shut down without as much as a good bye, leaving just virtual ghost towns - curious remnants of models and predictions we now laugh or at least shake our heads at.

The core architecture of everything produced by BD Ratings is that of fundamental analysis. It is the theory that the market to some degree is efficient - more so as time passes - and that in the case of cryptocurrencies, stored value will in a slow evolutionary process be drawn to protocols well suited to counter the age-old threats that may destroy or cripple them. As moths are drawn to lit lamps in chaotic and frantic movements, so does value seek these newly established protocols with sound properties, or in other words strong fundamentals.

In 2018, BD Ratings published 49 articles, including 26 cryptocurrency full ratings and 12 follow-up analyses. Result-wise, the ratings have been good and anyone following the work on this webpage might have saved himself or herself a bitcoin or two. As always it has to be said that the ratings are set with a multi-year period in mind, so even if these preliminary results are very good, they should not be a complete stamp of approval of what we do.

The hit-rate as defined here reached 89%, meaning only 1 out of every 10 valuation predictions have been a miss so far.

In fact, the BD Ratings hit-rate reached the same level as that of the Bitcoin Maximalist hit-rate - a measure on predictive success of that heuristic. 

The plan now is to continue this journey in a steady pace, with more follow-up analyses, reviews of new cryptocurrencies, and sporadic articles regarding more general cryptocurrency happenings and curiosities. Examples of the latter is the Bitcoin Rhodium narrative and musings on value protocols in general. Take care and stay tuned for more cryptocurrency craziness sooner than you may expect it.